Reputation weight = f(Brier score), graded on real outcomes. Weights size the PM's book.
RESEARCH FEED ● LIVE
PAPER PORTFOLIO
POSITIONS
How this works
Seven specialist agents (macro, fundamental, quant, news, risk, skeptic, PM) run a full investment process on real historical market data: daily bars for 10 large-cap names plus SPY, replayed session by session. Nothing about the market is invented.
Research cycle — each researcher pitches their strongest signal with a confidence level; the skeptic attacks the two highest-conviction theses; risk checks sizing; the PM builds the book, weighting agents by live reputation.
Advance time — the tape moves through real sessions; predictions resolve against what actually happened, and every agent is scored with the Brier score(p − outcome)²: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.
Reputation is earned — PM position weights scale with each agent's trailing Brier score on real outcomes. Calibration curves show whether "70% confident" really means 70%.
Measured, not scripted — regimes come from SPY's trailing trend, "events" are detected abnormal single-day moves with real dates and sizes, the fundamental anchor is each name's 200-day trend, and betas are realized vs SPY.
The ledger is append-only — every prediction is permanently recorded and later graded on real prices. Nothing is cherry-picked. State persists in your browser; ↺ starts a fresh fund on the same history.
Market data
The header badge shows the live source: ● LIVE = fresh daily bars from Stooq · ◐ CACHED = your last good fetch · ○ SNAPSHOT = the bundled real dataset (Yahoo Finance) used offline. ↻ data checks for newer sessions and extends the fund in place — open predictions keep resolving.
Real headlines (optional)
Events show the detected move by default. Paste a free Finnhub API key to attach the real published headline behind recent abnormal moves. The key is stored only in this browser's localStorage — it never goes into the code or anywhere else.
⚠️ Paper fund, not advice. The agents and their research are simulated; the prices and outcomes are real history. No real money, no real securities.